Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 27.395026 32.611845 38.312573 44.974161 52.513355 60.749583 70.395179
2025-08-03 20.064071 27.060675 35.436065 46.065358 59.051606 74.254489 93.240336
2025-08-10 15.160930 22.674698 32.356032 45.453731 62.394673 83.239732 110.466043
2025-08-17 12.226145 20.006141 30.678415 45.896537 66.497146 92.846509 128.457001
2025-08-24 9.892122 17.631798 28.886763 45.718083 69.436373 100.805312 144.444467
2025-08-31 7.767278 15.115937 26.449193 44.206359 70.209724 105.697209 156.402858
2025-09-07 6.616152 13.899691 25.710926 44.949522 74.019118 114.701798 174.071442
2025-09-14 5.355468 12.236180 24.013683 43.995891 75.179994 119.950172 186.682728
2025-09-21 4.680487 11.488221 23.680549 45.069403 79.327495 129.517256 205.581314
2025-09-28 3.666511 9.865981 21.619879 43.104560 78.613754 131.907544 214.273802
2025-10-05 3.293426 9.474878 21.680839 44.641309 83.416993 142.574088 235.213450
2025-10-12 2.918310 8.997861 21.510287 45.733051 87.521199 152.303094 255.054579
2025-10-19 2.575219 8.567050 21.462038 47.195808 92.588904 164.133254 279.106447
2025-10-26 2.236762 8.072145 21.233482 48.334323 97.230956 175.589757 303.169472
2025-11-02 1.809724 7.218498 20.125275 47.699494 98.769390 182.185349 320.029318
2025-11-09 1.532525 6.690971 19.627906 48.159403 102.190380 191.867282 341.901578
2025-11-16 1.261641 6.086660 18.854191 47.974073 104.411064 199.639932 360.991503
2025-11-23 0.969353 5.289582 17.481123 46.403848 103.975774 202.965173 373.105963
2025-11-30 0.831795 4.978852 17.245066 47.175824 107.885968 213.650483 397.246469
2025-12-07 0.650569 4.411906 16.245520 46.185201 108.380103 218.532818 412.125181
2025-12-14 0.567853 4.215749 16.203037 47.300343 112.960809 230.555884 438.953122
2025-12-21 0.413090 3.592843 14.841388 45.259137 111.218217 231.502090 447.534509
2025-12-28 0.370556 3.506544 15.030785 46.855674 116.790202 245.469954 478.107846